Uncertainty, Instability and Irreversibility in the Earth System
Funded by the ICA-RUS project, we are holding a symposium at YES, JAMSTEC Yokohama, 11-13th March 2013. Please find the evolving programme below.
Six illustrious scientists from foreign lands are attending!
They are:
Professor Mat Collins - Exeter University, UK
Dr Tamsin Edwards - Bristol University, UK
Dr Andrey Ganopolski - PIK, Germany
Professor Klaus Keller - Penn State, USA
Dr Benjamin Sanderson - NCAR, USA
Professor Paul Valdes - Bristol University, UK
All scientists within Japan are welcome to attend. If you would like to come, present a talk or a poster, please fill in the form below.
Six illustrious scientists from foreign lands are attending!
They are:
Professor Mat Collins - Exeter University, UK
Dr Tamsin Edwards - Bristol University, UK
Dr Andrey Ganopolski - PIK, Germany
Professor Klaus Keller - Penn State, USA
Dr Benjamin Sanderson - NCAR, USA
Professor Paul Valdes - Bristol University, UK
All scientists within Japan are welcome to attend. If you would like to come, present a talk or a poster, please fill in the form below.
Programme Overview
Mon 11th March10:00-12:00
Introduction to climate research in Japan: Seita Emori, Taikan Oki, Michio Kawamiya 11:30-13:00 lunch 13:00-15:00 Debate #1: "Abrupt climate changes in the Earth System - do they matter?" Paul Valdes, Klaus Keller, Seita Emori (20 mins each). Discussion Chair: Andrey G. 15:00-15:30 tea 15:30-17:00 Risks and Impacts of Climate Change 4 short talks 17:00 end |
Tue 12th March09:30-11:30 Debate #2:
"What can we learn from single model and multi- model ensembles?" Ben Sanderson, Tokuta Yokohata, Tamsin Edwards (20 mins each). Discussion Chair: Mat Collins. 11:30-13:30 lunch 13:30-15:00 Posters (including tea) 15:00-17:00 Learning from the Past 5 short talks 17:00 end Dinner in Yokohama |
Wed 13th March09:30-12:00
Predicting the Future 6 minute talks 11:30-13:30 lunch 13:30-15:20 Debate #3: "Climate science - do we need new directions or have we done enough?" Mat Collins, Andrey Ganopolski, Ayako Abe-Ouchi (20 mins each). Discussion Chair: James Annan. 15:30-16:00 tea 16:00-17:00 Summary and discussion: Julia Hargreaves. 17:00 end |
Detailed Programme
Monday 11th March
10:00 Welcome and Introduction - Julia Hargreaves
Introduction to climate research in Japan:
10:15
Seita Emori, [email protected]
Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society (ICA-RUS) - introduction to an interdisciplinary research project in Japan
10:40
Micho Kawamiya, [email protected]
Overview of a Japan's global change projection program: SOUSEI
11:10
Taikan OKI, [email protected]
Impact Assessment of Climate Change as a part of Global Risk Management.
11:30-13:00 lunch
13:00-15:00 Debate #1:
"Abrupt climate changes in the Earth System - do they matter?"
Paul Valdes, Klaus Keller, Seita Emori (20 mins each).
Discussion
Chair: Andrey G.
15:00-15:30 tea
Risks and Impacts of Climate Change:
15:30
Naota Hanasaki, [email protected]
A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways
15:50
Klaus Keller, [email protected]
Climate Risk Management in the Anthropocene
16:10
Kazuya Nishina, [email protected]
Statistical evaluation of uncertainties in global soil organic carbon stock projection relevant to sensitivities of global mean temperature and precipitation changes -a model inter-comparison study-
16:30
Masahito Shigemitsu, [email protected]
Title: Oxygen trends in the Atlantic over the 20th and 21st centuries projected by a 3D ocean biogeochemical model
17:00 end
Tuesday 12th March
09:30-11:30 Debate #2:
"What can we learn from single model and multi- model ensembles?"
Ben Sanderson, Tokuta Yokohata, Tamsin Edwards (20 mins each).
Discussion
Chair: Mat Collins.
11:30-13:30 lunch
13:30-15:00 Posters and general discussions (including tea):
Akitomo Yamamoto
[email protected]
Estimation of decrease in global inventory of methane hydrate associated with future climate change.
Kaoru Tachiiri
[email protected]
Temperature rise and allowable carbon emissions for medium mitigation scenario RCP4.5
Masashi Kiguchi
[email protected]
"Reevaluation of future water stress due to socio-economic and climate factors under a warming climate"
Rumi Ohgaito
[email protected]
Can drastic climate change be simulated better in an ESM than an AOGCM? – A comparison of mid-Holocene experiments
Ayako Abe-Ouchi
[email protected]
Southern Ocean as a key for understanding modeling uncertainties in simulating the glacial AMOC
Learning from the Past:
15:00
Paul Valdes, [email protected]
Modelling the Last Deglaciation: Can we simulate past rapid warming events?
15:25
Andrey Ganopolski, [email protected]
Paleoclimate constraints on critical climate thresholds
15:50
Masakazu Yoshimori, [email protected]
On the possibility of constraining the climate sensitivity: A view from LGM multimodel simulations
16:10
Wing-Le Chan, [email protected]
Modelling the Mid-Pliocene climate with MIROC.
16:30
James Annan, [email protected]
Using the Last Glacial Maximum to constrain future climate change
J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves RIGC/JAMSTEC M. Yoshimori and A. Abe-Ouchi AORI UTokyo
17:00 end
Dinner in Yokohama
Wednesday 13th March
Predicting the Future:
09:30
Tamsin Edwards
[email protected]
Uncertainty in future sea level contributions from Greenland and Antarctica
9:54
S. Lan Smith
[email protected]
Optimally-based modeling of plankton for use in earth-system modeling
10:18
Benjamin Sanderson
[email protected]
"Strategies for addressing interdependency in multi-model ensembles"
10:42
Kuniko Yamazaki
[email protected]
Obtaining diverse behaviours in a climate model without the use of flux adjustments
11:06
Mat Collins
[email protected]
Investigating Constraints on Future Climate Projections
11:30-13:30 lunch
13:30-15:30 Debate #3:
"Climate science - do we need new directions or have we done enough?"
Mat Collins, Andrey Ganopolski, Ayako Abe-Ouchi (20 mins each).
Discussion
Chair: James Annan.
15:30-16:00 tea
16:00-17:00
Symposium Summary and discussion:
Julia Hargreaves.
17:00 end
10:00 Welcome and Introduction - Julia Hargreaves
Introduction to climate research in Japan:
10:15
Seita Emori, [email protected]
Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society (ICA-RUS) - introduction to an interdisciplinary research project in Japan
10:40
Micho Kawamiya, [email protected]
Overview of a Japan's global change projection program: SOUSEI
11:10
Taikan OKI, [email protected]
Impact Assessment of Climate Change as a part of Global Risk Management.
11:30-13:00 lunch
13:00-15:00 Debate #1:
"Abrupt climate changes in the Earth System - do they matter?"
Paul Valdes, Klaus Keller, Seita Emori (20 mins each).
Discussion
Chair: Andrey G.
15:00-15:30 tea
Risks and Impacts of Climate Change:
15:30
Naota Hanasaki, [email protected]
A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways
15:50
Klaus Keller, [email protected]
Climate Risk Management in the Anthropocene
16:10
Kazuya Nishina, [email protected]
Statistical evaluation of uncertainties in global soil organic carbon stock projection relevant to sensitivities of global mean temperature and precipitation changes -a model inter-comparison study-
16:30
Masahito Shigemitsu, [email protected]
Title: Oxygen trends in the Atlantic over the 20th and 21st centuries projected by a 3D ocean biogeochemical model
17:00 end
Tuesday 12th March
09:30-11:30 Debate #2:
"What can we learn from single model and multi- model ensembles?"
Ben Sanderson, Tokuta Yokohata, Tamsin Edwards (20 mins each).
Discussion
Chair: Mat Collins.
11:30-13:30 lunch
13:30-15:00 Posters and general discussions (including tea):
Akitomo Yamamoto
[email protected]
Estimation of decrease in global inventory of methane hydrate associated with future climate change.
Kaoru Tachiiri
[email protected]
Temperature rise and allowable carbon emissions for medium mitigation scenario RCP4.5
Masashi Kiguchi
[email protected]
"Reevaluation of future water stress due to socio-economic and climate factors under a warming climate"
Rumi Ohgaito
[email protected]
Can drastic climate change be simulated better in an ESM than an AOGCM? – A comparison of mid-Holocene experiments
Ayako Abe-Ouchi
[email protected]
Southern Ocean as a key for understanding modeling uncertainties in simulating the glacial AMOC
Learning from the Past:
15:00
Paul Valdes, [email protected]
Modelling the Last Deglaciation: Can we simulate past rapid warming events?
15:25
Andrey Ganopolski, [email protected]
Paleoclimate constraints on critical climate thresholds
15:50
Masakazu Yoshimori, [email protected]
On the possibility of constraining the climate sensitivity: A view from LGM multimodel simulations
16:10
Wing-Le Chan, [email protected]
Modelling the Mid-Pliocene climate with MIROC.
16:30
James Annan, [email protected]
Using the Last Glacial Maximum to constrain future climate change
J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves RIGC/JAMSTEC M. Yoshimori and A. Abe-Ouchi AORI UTokyo
17:00 end
Dinner in Yokohama
Wednesday 13th March
Predicting the Future:
09:30
Tamsin Edwards
[email protected]
Uncertainty in future sea level contributions from Greenland and Antarctica
9:54
S. Lan Smith
[email protected]
Optimally-based modeling of plankton for use in earth-system modeling
10:18
Benjamin Sanderson
[email protected]
"Strategies for addressing interdependency in multi-model ensembles"
10:42
Kuniko Yamazaki
[email protected]
Obtaining diverse behaviours in a climate model without the use of flux adjustments
11:06
Mat Collins
[email protected]
Investigating Constraints on Future Climate Projections
11:30-13:30 lunch
13:30-15:30 Debate #3:
"Climate science - do we need new directions or have we done enough?"
Mat Collins, Andrey Ganopolski, Ayako Abe-Ouchi (20 mins each).
Discussion
Chair: James Annan.
15:30-16:00 tea
16:00-17:00
Symposium Summary and discussion:
Julia Hargreaves.
17:00 end